January 28, 1993

Low Black Turnout Possible in Elections in South Africa

by Cape Times, Cape Town

WASHINGTON — Fear, cynicism and confusion could lead to a low black turnout in South Africa's first non-racial election, soon-to-be published research sponsored by the Matla Trust shows. “It would be a mistake to believe that voter turnout would be high,” Mr Craig Charney, the Wits [University of Witwatersrand] sociologist who is running the study, told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yesterday.

The finding, based on interviews with 24 focus groups throughout South Africa last November, appeared to reinforce ANC president, Mr Nelson Mandela's appeal for electoral assistance during his visit here last week.

Key factors included “widespread fear of retribution”, Mr Charney said. Interviewees “were afraid of violence if they do vote, if they don't vote, or it [sic] they vote for the wrong people”. There was also widespread cynicism, not only about the fairness of the process and the secrecy of ballots, but also about the capabilities of the resulting black government.

Respondents cited what happened both in homelands and across much of Africa. There was also widespread confusion about what voting entailed, indicating the need for a massive voter education programme.

Mr Charney noted that even in Zambia, where enthusiasm for ousting Dr Kenneth Kaunda was high, the turnout in the 1991 election was only around 45%. For many, the costs of voting seemed to outweigh the perceived benefits, a situation those with an interest in a low turnout would seek to exploit.

Foreign governments, the United Nations and private groups could play an important part in supporting voter education, mediating disputes on electoral codes and rules, and in providing monitoring and security, Mr Charney said.

 

---

< Return to NEWS REPORTS on our work >