October 15, 2008
The Angry Old Man
The second debate between Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican standard-bearer John McCain Oct. 7 was a defining moment that crystallized the difference between the two men and their chances for the presidency.
McCain lost decisively, polls show — not just because Obama was more articulate and visionary, but because the Republican was too fierce and angry. McCain’s aggressive, attack-focused performance there has been mirrored by his running mate and ads.
Consequently, McCain’s numbers on favorability, issues, and the vote have sunk while Obama’s have surged (particularly among voters who were reluctant to support him). Along with the sinking economy, McCain’s performance made last week a turning point. As his campaign lost substance, it gained ferocity — turning voters away from the angry old man.
Six polls found that Obama won last week’s encounter by big margins. CNN’s national poll gave it to the Democrat by 54% to 30%. Rasmussen’s post-debate poll put him ahead, 45% to 28%. A CBS poll of swing voters declared the Democrat the winner by 40% to 26%, while the Media Curves poll of Independents gave Obama a 52% to 34% edge. In Survey USA polls in Washington and California, Obama topped his GOP rival 54% to 29% and 56% to 26% respectively.
Obama’s margins of victory in the second debate were substantially larger than in polls after the two men's first face-off Sept. 26. Significantly, Rasmussen found that he even beat McCain among white voters and men, who have long had doubts among him.
More important still was how he won.
CNN found that Obama came across as more likeable, intelligent, and better spoken, and answered questions more directly.
But McCain did the decisive damage to himself with his visible hostility to Obama. By almost four-to-one, CNN viewers said he attacked more than Obama. He seemed “too forceful” and “angrier,” the Survey USA polls found, while Obama’s tone was “just right” and he showed more vision.
Swing voters concluded Obama was likelier to represent “real change” by 63% to 38%, CBS reported, while McCain appeared more the “typical politician” to CNN viewers by three-to-two. Worst of all for the Republican, who has made leadership a signature theme, Obama was seen as a stronger leader in the debate, 54% to 43%, CNN found.
The result? Obama gained significantly, while McCain shot himself in the foot. One-third of the electorate saw Obama more favorably after the debate, an ABC poll found, while just 8% said their view had worsened. In contrast, one in four said their opinion of McCain had worsened, twice the proportion who thought better of him. CNN’s post-debate poll underscored this: Obama’s favorability rose by 4 points, McCain's not at all.
As McCain’s ads and GOP vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin have piled on, voters have come to see McCain's campaign as focused on attacking Obama rather than raising issues by 59% to 35%, according to ABC. The reverse holds for the Democrat. Opinions of McCain worsened among one-fifth of the voters in the past two weeks, a just-released New York Times poll shows, and the Number One reason is his attacks on his opponent.
Obama’s focus on key issues has let him reassert control of them. Three days after the debate, Obama had jumped to a six-point lead on the economy and an eleven-point lead on energy in the Diageo-Hotline daily tracking poll. He was tied with McCain on both in the survey released Oct. 7, just before the two men clashed in Nashville.
Obama also gained where it mattered most: in the vote. Between Oct. 7 and Oct. 11, he increased his lead over McCain by two points on the Diageo/Hotline poll, and made similar gains in Zogby, Research 2000, Democracy Corps, and Rasmussen polls.
At the state level, these shifts are translating into dramatic changes. In GOP-leaning Missouri, on Oct. 12 Survey USA found that white voters, particularly men, had switched in droves from McCain to Obama, swinging the state to the Democrat. The same happened in Pennsylvania, the firm found, propelling Obama to a 15-point lead, while a new Rasmussen poll showed similar trends had flipped Ohio to Obama.
In the last couple of days, as his Karl Rove-style tactics failed to gain traction and the economic crisis continued, McCain has dialed back on the personal attacks. But it seems to be too late. The second debate crystallized John McCain’s image as a cranky old man—which is helping to make this election break Barack Obama's way.
Craig Charney is president of Charney Research, a New York polling firm. He was Senior Analyst on President Clinton’s 1996 re-election polling team.
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