Charney Research article: New York Anxiety Attack

New York Anxiety Attack

Poll shows sharp increase in worries since ’02; City Hall loses big-time

by Erik Engquist

In the last five years, New York City has rebounded from the Sept. 11 attack, seen serious crime decline, added a quarter of a million jobs and attracted about 150,000 new residents. Yet by many measures, New Yorkers are more dissatisfied with their city and its government than they were five years ago, according to a Crain’s New York Business poll.

Some 36% believe conditions in the city are getting worse, up from 30% in 2002. An increasing number call Gotham dirtier and noisier, say they have little faith in city government, and give low ratings to mass transit, public schools and the police. Housing has surpassed the economy as the second-most-cited concern, trailing only crime.

One of the most startling findings is the poor regard for city government. Only 25% of people trust city government most or nearly all of the time, down from 35%, and only 15% of blacks do.

“Despite Mayor [Michael] Bloomberg’s personal popularity, trust in city government has continued to slide,” says Craig Charney, whose firm, Charney Research, conducted the poll, repeating a survey it conducted in December 2002. “I am surprised.”

Negative opinions about Washington and Albany may have rubbed off on City Hall, observers say.

A spokesman for the mayor says in a statement, “There’s no doubt that people are feeling some anxiety—even as the city has cut crime and achieved the lowest murder rate on record, turned around the schools and increased high school graduation rates, passed the halfway mark early in the nation’s largest affordable housing program, and launched the most comprehensive plan anywhere to tackle climate change—because New York City’s economy, like the nations, appears to be headed toward a slowdown.”

The poll echoes an increasing disparity between haves and have-nots and whites and minorities in the city. Today, 18% say it is “very difficult” to pay their rent or mortgage, up from 8% in 2003. At the same time, 24% now say it is “not difficult at all,” up from 18%.

“The result reflects the barbell effect we’re having with income,” says Jerilyn Perine, the city’s housing commissioner from 2000 to 2004 and now executive director of the Citizens Housing and Planning Council of New York. “We used to have a bell curve, with most people in the middle. Now you’re seeing a flattening of that curve and a growing high end and a growing poverty rate.”

Only 4% of those polled in 2002 cited housing or buildings as the biggest problem in their communities, far behind crime/violence/drugs (21%) and jobs/poverty/economy (20%). Crime still tops the list at 23%, but housing is now cited by 11%, compared with 7% for the economy.
Ms. Perine blames a rise in costs as the demand to live in New York City has outpaced the supply of housing. “This is the downside of prosperity,” she says.

Minorities are struggling the most. About a quarter of blacks, Latinos and Asians say it is very difficult to pay their rent or mortgage, compared with just 3% of whites.

On other subjects as well, the poll affirms past findings that whites and blacks view the city quite differently. The divergence is most apparent in opinions about police protection. While 64% of whites rate it good or excellent, only 32% of blacks do. It is deemed poor by 32% of blacks but just 3% of whites.

Similarly, 20% of blacks but just 6% of whites call public schools poor; 45% of whites call them good or excellent, but only 25% of blacks agree. Public transportation is considered good or excellent by 61% of whites but just 41% of blacks.
Crowded mass transit

For New Yorkers on the whole, opinions of mass transit have slipped. Only 8% now call it excellent, down from 23% five years ago, while 13% call it poor, up from 7%.

“The poll results show that service is, in fact, deteriorating, and it proves that the MTA’s continual use of the 1970s as the basis of comparison is a joke,” says City Council Transportation Committee Chairman John Liu.

On the positive side, the poll shows modest improvements in opinions of traffic flow—perhaps because post-Sept. 11 street closures were still causing havoc when the previous poll was conducted—and personal security. However, 61% still deem it fair or poor.

“In absolute terms, it’s an awful rating,” Mr. Liu says. “The feedback I get from the public is that the traffic is unbearable.”

Views of the city’s public schools are more muddled now than in 2002, when the Bloomberg administration took control of the system and Chancellor Joel Klein began reforming it. Nineteen percent say the schools are poor, up from 12% five years ago, and 23% are unsure, up from 13%.

“There have been three reorganizations in the past four years,” surmises Pamela Wheaton, director of InsideSchools.org, a nonprofit that reviews city schools. “People are really confused.”

Eva Moskowitz, a Klein supporter and former chairwoman of the City Council Education Committee, adds, “The system that Bloomberg and Klein inherited was a mess, and it’s still largely a mess. I think that's what the public is reacting to.”

NEW YORKERS’ OPINIONS, 2002 AND 2007

Is New York headed in the right direction?
(Opinion in 2002 followed opinion in 2007.)

Right direction: 50% 46%
Wrong direction: 30% 36%
Neither: 16% 13%
Don’t know: 4% 5%

Just about always: 1% 3%
Most of the time: 34% 22%
Some of the time: 52% 65%
Don’t know: 13% 9%

Excellent: 23% 8%
Good: 46% 49%
Fair: 24% 26%
Poor: 7% 13%
Don’t know: 1% 4%

Crime / violence / drugs: 21% 23%
Housing / buildings: 4% 11%
Jobs / poverty / economy: 20% 7%
Traffic / roads / parking: 8% 7%
Overdevelopment: 4% 3%

< Return to PRESS NEWS REPORTS on CHARNEY RESEARCH >