Crains NY Business

April 13, 2008

NY Voters Like Paterson But Want Options

Little Fallout from Scandals; Rivals would Offer Strong Challenges in 2010

by Erik Engquist

New Yorkers are generally supportive of new Gov. David Paterson, who appears to be undamaged by revelations about his personal life. But they are far from convinced that they want to keep him, according to a poll conducted for Crain's.

Voters would opt for Mayor Michael Bloomberg in a prospective matchup if an election were held today, while either former Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would make a strong showing against Mr. Paterson, according to the poll by Charney Research.

“Paterson is benefiting from the voters giving him a chance,” says political consultant Ernie Lendler. But the poll shows that the public “doesn't give Paterson a lot of slack. I don't know how long the honeymoon is going to go on.”

Mr. Paterson is viewed favorably by 57% of registered voters statewide and unfavorably by just 12%, but a substantial 31% have no opinion, according to the poll, which was conducted from March 31 to April 3. Mr. Paterson stepped into his role after 14 months in the obscure post of lieutenant governor, following the resignation of Gov. Eliot Spitzer on March 17 because of a prostitution scandal.

Media coverage of Mr. Paterson's extramarital affairs and his drug use in the 1970s dominated his first week in office, yet has had no great effect on his public image. Indeed, 53% of respondents say the media went too far in reporting on the new governor's personal life, compared with 40% who say the coverage was justified.

“A majority of New Yorkers are disturbed that the press reported on Paterson's affairs,” says Craig Charney, president of Charney Research. “The public feels politicians deserve a zone of privacy—63% think there are circumstances where the press should not report about a politician's extramarital affairs.”

But that does not hold true when elected officials hire hookers. “Seventy percent think that should be reported if the politician campaigned against prostitution, as Spitzer had,” notes Mr. Charney.

Still scandal-free in his seventh year as mayor, Mr. Bloomberg enjoys broad support statewide, the poll shows—even though it was conducted during the height of his controversial and unsuccessful push for congestion pricing in Manhattan. A healthy 67% view him favorably, compared to just 19% who have an unfavorable opinion. In a hypothetical gubernatorial election, the mayor is preferred over Mr. Paterson, 44% to 41%.

Highest Negative Rating

Mr. Giuliani, his star faded in the wake of a $60 million presidential campaign that yielded but a single delegate, would not fare as well in a face-off with Mr. Paterson, losing 47% to 41%. The former mayor has the most intensely negative rating of the public figures in the poll: Nearly one in five has a “very unfavorable” opinion of him. The same number view him “somewhat” unfavorably.

“If I were Rudy Giuliani, I'd keep my day job,” says Mr. Lendler. “His positives are the same as Paterson [57%], but his unfavorable [rating] is at 37%. I think his day is done.”

Others See a Hazier Picture.

“All of the races are very open,” says Mr. Charney.

He considers the poll numbers to be encouraging for Mr. Paterson, given the governor's short tenure and rocky debut. “David Paterson emerges as more than a placeholder.”

Mr. Giuliani, whose own personal indiscretions have made headlines, easily eclipses Mr. Bloomberg in a theoretical Republican primary, 55% to 35%. However, he wouldn't do as well as Mr. Bloomberg in a general election matchup against Mr. Paterson.

“It indicates that Bloomberg has a lot of support from Democrats and independents,” says political strategist Bill Green.

Mr. Bloomberg is no longer a registered Republican and could run as an independent. His spokesman says the mayor has no interest in leading the state after his term expires at the end of 2009, but Republican leaders hope that he will reconsider.

In a Democratic primary contest, Mr. Paterson is preferred over Mr. Cuomo, 41% to 34%, with a quarter of Democratic voters undecided between the two.

Cuomo’s Big Gains

Overall, the poll reflects well on Mr. Cuomo, who is viewed favorably by 65% of voters and unfavorably by just 22%. In his first term after succeeding Mr. Spitzer as the state's chief law enforcement officer, Mr. Cuomo has kept a dignified, modest profile—in contrast to his tenure as federal housing secretary, when he was accused of self-aggrandizement. The tack seems to be working.

“Cuomo's favorable ratings are very good,” Mr. Green says. “He's shot nothing but net since he's come into office.”

The same cannot be said for Mr. Paterson. With high-profile rivals looming, the rookie governor must make a strong impression on New Yorkers.

“The challenge he has is to build on his good will and build his positive name identification,” says Mr. Lendler. “Nobody knows who he is.”

PATERSON VS. THE CONTENDERS

Whom would you vote for in a gubernatorial race?

 

The survey was designed by Charney Research for Crain's New York Business. Telephone interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by Opinion Access Corp. between March 31 and April 3, 2008, with a representative sample of 607 registered voters living in New York state households. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is +/-4%.

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