February 5, 2007
Hillary Leads Rivals in White House Race: Pollby Erik Engquist
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is poised to trump all comers in New York’s presidential primary and general elections in 2008, according to a Crain’s New York Business poll.
The survey of 600 registered voters across the state also found that Rudy Giuliani would handily win a Republican primary but lose the state in a final race for the White House. In addition, the results show that Mayor Michael Bloomberg, if he runs as an independent, would be little more than a long shot.
The results reflect the advantages enjoyed by Ms. Clinton, who is fresh off a $30.8 million re-election campaign in which she drew 67% of the vote and is the only New Yorker to have announced a presidential bid. In a prospective Democratic primary, the second-term senator was favored by 54% of party members, far ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., at 18%, and John Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, at 5%.
In one-on-one matchups with Republicans, Ms. Clinton outpolled Mr. Giuliani 53% to 32% and Sen. John McCain of Arizona 55% to 26%.
The poll is a snapshot of the present, not a forecast, and does not guarantee an easy ride for the state’s junior senator.
“For Clinton, her strength is broad and impressive, but the real question is, How deep is it?” says Craig Charney, president of Charney Research, which conducted the poll from Jan. 22 to Jan. 25. “How well will it hold up in the give-and-take of a presidential campaign?”
Experts say that early polling favors Ms. Clinton because it is heavily influenced by name recognition, and that the Democratic race in New York will get tighter as voters become more familiar with Mr. Obama. By the same token, Mr. Giuliani has less potential to gain support because he's already well-known here.
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