Friday, July 30, 2004; 2:00 p.m. EST
Opinion Focus: Afghanistan Ready for Democracy?
Washington Post hosts online discussion between Craig
Charney, President of Charney Research and readers of the Washington Post
regarding the Afghan poll.
Just three years ago, the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. Women wore chadoris,
full-coverings for their heads and bodies, and their freedoms were practically
nonexistent. Afghanistan was the hotbed of terrorism.
Now democracy is an emerging possibility for the historically turbulent country. But is Afghanistan truly ready? What are the indicators? Has the country fully embraced freedom? Are the people willing to face full reform?
Craig Charney, president of Charney Research (a New York polling firm, which conducted a voter education planning survey in Afghanistan for the Asia Foundation), will be live online at 2 EST on Friday, July 30, to discuss the realities of an Afghan democracy.
washingtonpost.com: Welcome to Live Online with Craig Charney. He’s here and ready to take your questions.
Laurel, Md.: Aren’t most Afghanis illiterate? How will they vote?
Craig Charney: According to our survey, 36% of Afghans are illiterate. But there’s an established tradition of voting in countries with low literacy, where party symbols or pictures of the candidates are put on ballots for voters to make. Being illiterate is not the same as being apolitical or uninformed (although literate people are generally much more empowered in politics).
Lansdowe, Pa.: It is my understanding that President Karzai has control of Kabul only while being guarded by US forces. The rest of the country has reverted to the old ways where women have little or no rights of expression. Warlords control the country outside of the capitol. Tell me please how this can be considered a great American victory? It could be a victory but it is a project that has yet to be completed.
Craig Charney: Thanks for this question, which I know many people share. I’m glad that there is a chance to contrast what we learned in our country-wide research with the impressions that have filtered through in reports that often focus on the problem areas in Afghanistan.
The basic assumption in most of those reports — one I think shared by this questioner — is that either everything has changed or everything has stayed the same in Afghanistan. This is too simple a way to view things.
While President Karzai has direct control only of Kabul, he also has a great deal of influence in the rest of the country, through alliances and relationships with local leaders, through the allocation of resources for reconstruction, through the influence of his family, clan, and tribe, and through the support of the US and the international community. All these are real sources of power, even though the Afghan state, as such, remains weak and fragmented. It is far better — according to Afghans — than the situation that prevailed under the Taliban or warlords alone.
Women do indeed face tremendous problems in Afghanistan: they told us so. These include the lack of rights and education. However, most women say things are headed in the right direction, both because of the beginnings of peace and reconstruction, and because women’s rights have still improved. Women can work again and a million girls are in school — both things impossible under the Taliban. (This does not mean that there are enough jobs or schools — there are not — but nore does it mean that the country has “reverted to the old ways.”)
washingtonpost.com: I noticed that your firm is involved with the Asia Foundation, who recently funded a documentary called “Afghanistan Unveiled.” The documentary certainly highlighted Afghanistan’s progress, but it moreover emphasized the need for additional freedom and stability. Outside of Kabul, it appears that very little progress has been made for women’s liberation. Chadoris are quite common, as are men’s conservative views toward women. While the documentary focused on women’s freedom, a British parliamentary report (recently released) noted the dangerously high production levels of opium in Afghanistan. The report called for more ground troops to bring stability to the country.
Your oped calls for democracy in Afghanistan. Though you recognize the country’s faults, you largely claim that the country is ready to embrace democracy. Do you believe that democracy will be the panacea for Afghanistan’s problems? Or do you see that more stability is needed prior to democracy?
Craig Charney: Another excellent question.
It’s possible to exaggerate the Kabul vs. provinces differences. Even in Kabul a lot of women wear burqas in the street. Most of the million girls in school and women who have gone back to work are outside of Kabul. While conservative attitudes do persist among men, they are also conflicted about it nowadays. Our poll found that men as well as women recognize that women are treated unfairly and — in principle if not in practice — recognize that they deserve equal rights. (You can find the results in full at the Asia Foundation website, www.asiafoundation.org, or at ours, www.charneyresearch.com.)
Opium production is indeed a problem - it’s the only part of the economy (aside from development assistance) that’s been growing.
The key question at this point is whether democracy is needed for stability or the other way round, as the quesiton implies. Legitimate elected authority and the selection of leaders via bullets rather than ballots is likelier to promote stability than would the perpetuation of the status quo (illegitimate leaders and warlord domination).
Washington, D.C.: Al Qaeda surely hasn’t completely disappeared from Afghanistan in the past three years. Will democracy succeed in their heartland? Or has the U.S. been successful in destroying their camps in the country?
Craig Charney: Good point. Al Qaeda (and the Taliban) have not disappeared. They did lay low for 18 months or so after the fall ofthe Taliban, when we could have flooded the country with aid and didn’t, unfortunately. But since the middle of last year they have been attacking development workers and now election workers, mostly in the South, but in some cases near Kabul and in other regions.
However, it’s important to remember that they are VERY unpopular in Afghanistan. The Taliban had only a 12% favorable rating; even in their heartland in the South people were against them by a two-to-one margin. The people who are unhappy with the present government say they want MORE development assistance, not a return to the Middle Ages, so the discontented are not moving to the Taliban. Moreover, by attacking election workers — and opposing the strong public desire for elections — the Taliban and Al Qaeda are likely to further alientate afghans.
Philadelphia, Pa.: We haven’t heard much in the news about Afghanistan since the start of the Iraq war. How secure is it? Is the U.S. still working there? Is it safe enough to have elections?
Craig Charney: It’s more secure than most people realize. Most of the trouble is in two regions, the South and Northwest, which border Pakistan and Iran, where the Taliban is based.
Yet those two regions have only 20% of the population. In the rest of the country, two-thirds or more of the people say the security situation is good in their areas. (In fact, the proportion of Afghans who say they fear for their personal security is lower than in another poll where we posed the same question ... in New York City!)
Richmond, Va.: Very interesting article this morning - and certainly different from a lot of what we read. My question is how you conduct a poll in a place like Afghanistan and how you know it is accurate given that it is presumably quite foreign to most of those who you surveyed?
Craig Charney: To do the poll we used the standard polling methologies applied in developing countries. We randomly drew districts, villages, start points within the villages, and adult members of households as respondents.
Doing this mean putting together an alliance of companies. We worked with a local Afghan resarch house who provided trained interviewers (they had done listener research for VOA), and brought in pollsters from a top Indian polling firm to provide technical assistance, interviewer training, and help sampling. A colleague and I spent a total of three weeks in situ, pretesting the questionnaire to make sure it was understood and well translated and that all parts of the team worke well together.
We have used similar approaches previously in East Timor and other places where no pollster has gone before...
Bethesda, Md.: Your poll notes
great support for President Karzai, but given the circumstances under which
Afghans have lived for much of the past 25-30 years (and especially under
the Taliban), isn’t it it reasonable to assume that a lot of them would
be wary of criticizing the government?
Craig Charney: Indeed it would. In fact, many of them told us so — a sign that they would speak freely to our interviewers. But the majority of the Afghans we spoke with said they did feel free to speak their minds. Most of our respondents were critical of one or another authority figure, be it government or warlord. What we did not get are the constant “don't know” responses we have gotten from frightened respondents in other countries. Those are much more common than false positives from people who are scared.
Washington, D.C.: Will Karzai have a fair competition and legit rival in the presidential election?
Craig Charney: Two more difficult questions!
How fair the election will be depends in part on the effectiveness of monitoring and complaints procedures, as well as on voter education to assure people that the ballot is secret, so they can ignore threats or bribes. The international community is investing a lot of resources in these areas, but it remains to be seen if it is enough. It is worth noting, however, that it is difficult to have enough improprieties to make an election unfair in general, even if there are problems in specific areas.
Over 20 candidates have declared, but only one, a minister who quit and decided to run after Karzai ditched his defence minister (and chief warlord) as running mate, is seen as a serious opponent. He is certainly a legitimate rival with real forces (the northern Panshiris) backing him. How well he will do in a competition that centers on ballots rather than bullets remains to be seen. I’d be skeptical. If George Bush had Karzai’s numbers, he’d be a lot more confident of his political survival, even if he'd be a bit more worried about his physical survival!
washingtonpost.com: Afghanistan’s geography leaves much to be desired in terms of agricultural development. Do you know if the United States is assisting in any reforestation/ agricultural programs so that the country can produce profitable crops other than opium?
Craig Charney: I am not an expert in this issue. However, I do know that the US Agency for International Development has several programs underway in Afghanistan to promote agriculture and find alternatives to opium. One big one is called RAMP (I think that is something like Restoring Agricultural Productivity).
Washington, D.C.: Are democracy-building organizations heavily present in Afghanistan? If so, which ones? And how evident is their presence?
Craig Charney: Yes, there are quite a few. Apart from my colleagues in the Asia Foundation, US groups include NDI, IRI, and IFES, and there are various European groups, including Swisspeace and Mercy Corps and a French organization created by Bernard Henry-Levy who are involved. I know I’m leaving out quite a few. Their effects can be seen in the voter education posters around Kabul and in various other places.
San Antonio, Tex.: The Washington Post’s Howard Kurtz reported today that Qatar-based Al Jazirah television covered more of the DNC than our nation’s three major broadcast networks. Given that Afghanistan has far fewer television sets or satellite dishes than American, I was wondering if you know if Afghanistanis who were able watched any of our convention-on- TV goings-on? If they did or could watch, what we would be their reactions to the DNC convention, if any?
Craig Charney: Hmm ... Let’s see. We do know from our poll that 36% of Afghans watch TV regularly. However, most of these are people watching local TV — and I mean local, as there is still no national TV network there. The proportion with satellite TV, which would have had more convention coverage, is quite small. So even though I am a Democratic pollster, I’m afraid I can’t even hazard a guess as how big a bump the convention gave Kerry in Mazar-I-Sharif!
Lyme, Ct.: What do people in Afghanistan think of the United States? I know there are numerous factions while different views. Yet, is there a sense of disappointment that we pledged to help rebuild the country and then seemed to have turned our attention elsewhere, or is there still hope and a belief that Americans will return and offer constructive assistance, or is there a sense that Americans should have as little as possible to do in Afghanistan?
Craig Charney: In very broad terms: most Afghans like the US. The majority are favorable the the US and the US military in Afghanistan. However, this is not true in the two regions that have seen most of the trouble, the South and Northwest, where pluralities are unfavorable to both.
International assistance and the UN are generally quite popular in Afghanistan. Although there are some complaints that aid workers live too high off the hog, the main complaint is that people want more help. They are clear they do not want the US or UN out, to judge by what we saw in our research.
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