August 5, 2003
The Mayor of Manhattan
by Craig Charney
New York's pundits and political professionals have been puzzled
for months. How can Mayor Bloomberg's approval rating be just 30%, when all
their friends adore him? Take a closer look at the numbers, however, and all
becomes clear. The polls show that Mr. Bloomberg is the mayor of well-off
whites and Manhattanites, people who are focused on good government and the
budget and are happy with their schools and neighborhoods. But the middle-class
and outer-borough majority — increasingly anxious about jobs, crime,
schools, and quality of life — detests him.
These differences reveal failings of policy, not just communication. Mr. Bloomberg
is merely a manager, redrawing organization charts and balancing the budget
— on the back of the middle class. He is not an innovator, finding new,
cheaper ways to provide the services, jobs, and schools the middle class needs.
Our billionaire mayor's fate hangs on whether he can get back in touch with
the middle-class voters who elected him.
The people who still like Mr. Bloomberg are the people for whom things are
still going well. In recent published polls, his job approval is 50% or higher
among upper-income whites and Manhattanites. But that's not most New Yorkers.
The mayor's support runs 15 to 25 percentage points lower among the middle
class and in the outer boroughs.
In part, this reflects differing preoccupations. A poll my firm took recently
showed that the top preoccupation of upper-class whites — those with
incomes of more than $60,000, or twice the citywide median family income —
and Manhattan residents was the city's budget crisis. In contrast, the budget
ranked fourth among concerns of the middle class, those with incomes between
$20,000 and $60,000 - between the poverty level and twice the median family
income — and outer-borough New Yorkers of all races. Their top three
priorities for city government were jobs, crime, and schools.
There are growing differences between the neighborhoods of Mr. Bloomberg's
well-to-do friends and those of the discontented middle class. In Bloomberg's
New York, life is good. Some three-fifths of upper-class whites say their
areas are headed in the right direction, seven in 10 think the city pays them
enough attention, and two-thirds rate local quality of life as good or excellent.
Things are different for the middle class. Only two in five are happy with
their area's direction, the city's responsiveness, or neighborhood quality
of life. Similar divides exist on these issues between Manhattan and outer-borough
voters.
Things weren't always this way. Only two years ago, polls showed little difference
between the middle and upper classes or between Manhattan and other boroughs.
The middle class and outer boroughs became disaffected on Mr. Bloomberg's
watch, while things stayed sweet for the elite.
These differences in attitudes stem from real, growing differences in living
conditions and services. Most upper-class whites rarely see overflowing trash
cans, are sure local schools will meet state standards, and think their children
are safe at school. But almost half of the middle class complains of trash
on the streets, the majority doesn't think the schools measure up, and just
14% feel their children are “very safe” at school.
Although Mr. Bloomberg's problems have been chalked up to bad communications,
the concentration of discontent among middle class and outer-borough voters
suggests they really reflect bad policies. Mr. Bloomberg balanced the budget
with tax hikes and ticket blitzes that clobbered the recession-battered middle
class. He launched a Manhattan-centered job policy that proclaimed New York
a luxury taste. Creative alternatives — like competitive bidding, privatization,
or new technology to cut costs — got short shrift. Rather than responding
to middle-class worries about school safety, the mayor cut school aides who
keep school children in line. While exempting 200 elite schools from his new
lockstep curriculum, he imposed it on middle-class schools, forcing many to
cut music, arts, and sports.
Certainly, the mayor has also been hurt by his famously wooden style and refusal
to reach out. But the real issue facing Mr. Bloomberg is that he is losing
the voters who made him mayor. The middle class and outer boroughs chose Mr.
Bloomberg over Mark Green because they thought he was more in touch with their
concerns and would protect Mayor Giuliani's achievements. But they never felt
the sort of tie to Mr. Bloomberg that bound them to Mr. Giuliani or, before
him, Mayor Koch.The next mayoral election will belong to the candidate who
best speaks for them.
Mr. Charney is President of Charney Research, a New York polling firm.
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